Monday’s Musings: Expect More Acquisitions By the Big 4 in 2009

Continued economic slow down, credit crisis, and diminished IPO market create the perfect storm for the Big 4 or as fellow blogger Josh Greenbaum likes to call it, MISO (ie. Microsoft, IBM, SAP, and Oracle). Here are four trends at work that shape the thinking on why 2009 will be another year of continued consolidation:

• Most privately held vendor exit strategies focus on acquisition not IPO. Many firms with IPO plans have been told by their boards to refocus on revenue growth and partnerships. The intention - use partnership success to both drive revenue growth and attract acquisition by a larger vendor. Many see acquisition by the Big 4 as the best exit strategy at this point in time.
• Strategic acquisitions target vendors with strong recurring revenue streams. Chatter from BBQ’s and luncheons highlight vendors with large maintenance revenues as an area for potential targets. Nurting a profitable and recurring revenue stream will allow many vendors to share overall development and support costs as they weather the next storm. The hunt is on for vendors who fit this bill as private equity and vendors chase after these assets. Case in point - the intention to acquire Epicor by Elliot Associates.
• Economic conditions lowers publicly traded vendor valuations. For companies with a prescribed target list, its never been cheaper to acquire a competitor. Most P/E ratio have become quite attractive and fall below the standard 2X to 3X revenue price target.
• Pressure remains to grow new markets. the larger vendors express tremendous interest in acquiring new distribution channels, micro industry verticals, and new geographical coverage. One great example is the movement in the Microsoft Dynamics partner base. The rumors of M&A run fierce as the partners consolidate to gain scale for regional and global delivery. The fight for Axon by HCL and Infosys also highlights the consolidation happening around SAP system integrators as they transition into solution providers.

The bottom line.

Despite the gloomy economic outlook, end users should assume that the biggest vendors will continue their torrid pace of acquisitions. As these acquisitions factor into long term apps strategies and planning for 2009 purchases, users must assume that truly specialized solutions with significant industry footprint will be acquired. One proactive approach is to suggest acquisitions and tie-ups to key vendors during discussions with their senior management on financial viability as well as long term roadmap and strategy.

Your POV.

Who do you think will be acquired by whom next? Look forward to your thoughts. Post a comment or drop me a line at rwang0@gmail.com.

Copyright © 2008 R Wang. All rights reserved.

News Analysis: Oracle Acquires Agile

Based on their Red Pepper IPO, it was only a matter of time that Oracle CEO Chuck Phillips and Agile CEO Jay Fulcher would tie the knot. The $495 M cash deal for Agile adds leading PLM capabilities to Oracle's application arsenal and brings to Oracle over 1,250 top PLM customers and over 10,000 visualization customers globally. In fact, over 60% of Agile's customers chose this best of breed vendor to work with their SAP and Infor ERP systems. With Oracle's efficient pre and post merger integration teams, expect the acquisition to close quickly with minimal disruption by July.

Oracle customers should evaluate Agile in PLM short lists for advanced PLM capabilities. Meanwhile, existing Agile customers should push to make sure that Fusion Middleware does not become a prerequisite for future installations. In addition, customers should quickly lock-in their long-term maintenance agreements to avoid the higher Oracle 22% maintenance fees.

(The personal contents in this blog do not reflect the opinions, ideas, thoughts, points of view, and any other potential attribution of my current, past, or future employers.)
Copyrighted 2007 by R Wang. All rights reserved

News Analysis: Workbrain brings key workforce management capabilities to Infor customers

Acquisition of Workbrain marks 20th for privately held Infor Global Solutions, GmbH
Infor's acquisition this morning of Workbrain for $227M marks its 20th. Assimilation of the Toronto based workforce management vendor fills a significant void in the # 3 ERP vendor's product portfolio. Workbrain delivers key work force planning, time and attendance tracking, scheduling, absence management and related solutions that help companies contain costs and develop optimized human capital management strategies. Marquee customers include British Airways, Target, and General Mills Inc. Infor and Workbrain have similar customer profiles that should lead to many joint sales opportunities.

By adding key workforce management functionality, Workbrain complements Infor's greater strategy of growing revenue among its 70,000 customer base via sales of extended solutions. Infor's business model primarily focuses on customer retention and maintenance revenue optimization. While Infor continues to maintain a strong track record in retaining acquired customers, future prospects should continue to validate the level of support and quality of enhancements delivered among current products with existing customers. On the next gen architecture front, Infor's future SOA strategy remains visionary in its approach. When delivered, one would expect it to lower overall TCO by design and extend flexibility to existing customers seeking the flexibility and integration requirements of SOA.


(The personal contents in this blog do not reflect the opinions, ideas, thoughts, points of view, and any other potential attribution of my current, past, or future employers.)
Copyrighted 2007 by R Wang. All rights reserved

Insider View: PeopleSoft Gobbled Up by Oracle

Alas the end has come to the long journey we've faced here at PeopleSoft. Most of us had hoped that the company would survive independently, yet our board has made a different decision. Some of us found out at 3:00 am and boy was it a solemn commute to work this morning. Almost everyone is at work, the parking lot is full and everyone is starting to think about their future.

The camera crews have shown up in the parking lot. Many of us in AR and PR have got the job of telling them to go away and that we have no comments. There are tears in almost everyone's eyes. We'll get through this one and hopefully everyone will have a new start. We still have faith that Dave Duffield will take care of us, he always has, even in the worst of times.

(Editorial Note: The PSFT management team left each employee with a good buy out package and covered healthcare and benefits for some time. Dave even set up a fund to help PeoplePeople who could not find work after trying for 3 months!)



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Infoworld
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CNET News
Business Week

(The personal contents in this blog do not reflect the opinions, ideas, thoughts, points of view, and any other potential attribution of my current, past, or future employers.)
Copyrighted 2004 by R Wang. All rights reserved