Monday’s Musings: Expect More Acquisitions By the Big 4 in 2009

Continued economic slow down, credit crisis, and diminished IPO market create the perfect storm for the Big 4 or as fellow blogger Josh Greenbaum likes to call it, MISO (ie. Microsoft, IBM, SAP, and Oracle). Here are four trends at work that shape the thinking on why 2009 will be another year of continued consolidation:

• Most privately held vendor exit strategies focus on acquisition not IPO. Many firms with IPO plans have been told by their boards to refocus on revenue growth and partnerships. The intention - use partnership success to both drive revenue growth and attract acquisition by a larger vendor. Many see acquisition by the Big 4 as the best exit strategy at this point in time.
• Strategic acquisitions target vendors with strong recurring revenue streams. Chatter from BBQ’s and luncheons highlight vendors with large maintenance revenues as an area for potential targets. Nurting a profitable and recurring revenue stream will allow many vendors to share overall development and support costs as they weather the next storm. The hunt is on for vendors who fit this bill as private equity and vendors chase after these assets. Case in point - the intention to acquire Epicor by Elliot Associates.
• Economic conditions lowers publicly traded vendor valuations. For companies with a prescribed target list, its never been cheaper to acquire a competitor. Most P/E ratio have become quite attractive and fall below the standard 2X to 3X revenue price target.
• Pressure remains to grow new markets. the larger vendors express tremendous interest in acquiring new distribution channels, micro industry verticals, and new geographical coverage. One great example is the movement in the Microsoft Dynamics partner base. The rumors of M&A run fierce as the partners consolidate to gain scale for regional and global delivery. The fight for Axon by HCL and Infosys also highlights the consolidation happening around SAP system integrators as they transition into solution providers.

The bottom line.

Despite the gloomy economic outlook, end users should assume that the biggest vendors will continue their torrid pace of acquisitions. As these acquisitions factor into long term apps strategies and planning for 2009 purchases, users must assume that truly specialized solutions with significant industry footprint will be acquired. One proactive approach is to suggest acquisitions and tie-ups to key vendors during discussions with their senior management on financial viability as well as long term roadmap and strategy.

Your POV.

Who do you think will be acquired by whom next? Look forward to your thoughts. Post a comment or drop me a line at rwang0@gmail.com.

Copyright © 2008 R Wang. All rights reserved.

News Analysis: Oracle Acquires Agile

Based on their Red Pepper IPO, it was only a matter of time that Oracle CEO Chuck Phillips and Agile CEO Jay Fulcher would tie the knot. The $495 M cash deal for Agile adds leading PLM capabilities to Oracle's application arsenal and brings to Oracle over 1,250 top PLM customers and over 10,000 visualization customers globally. In fact, over 60% of Agile's customers chose this best of breed vendor to work with their SAP and Infor ERP systems. With Oracle's efficient pre and post merger integration teams, expect the acquisition to close quickly with minimal disruption by July.

Oracle customers should evaluate Agile in PLM short lists for advanced PLM capabilities. Meanwhile, existing Agile customers should push to make sure that Fusion Middleware does not become a prerequisite for future installations. In addition, customers should quickly lock-in their long-term maintenance agreements to avoid the higher Oracle 22% maintenance fees.

(The personal contents in this blog do not reflect the opinions, ideas, thoughts, points of view, and any other potential attribution of my current, past, or future employers.)
Copyrighted 2007 by R Wang. All rights reserved

Event Report: i2 Planet 2007, Orlando, FL

Given the recent consolidation in the industry and increasing dominance of both Oracle and SAP, I couldn't help but wonder if supply chain had gone the way of CRM or if it was a specialized field that would continue to stand out like business intelligence. In fact, I normally don't specialize in supply chain but was at this year's i2 Planet mostly to get caught up to speed on i2's order management cycle capabilities and Agile Business Process Platform (ABPP). Here are a few quick observations from the event:

• Lots of interest and enthusiasm for the new generation supply chain. Customers expect demand-supply synchronization and related real-time demand management integration to provide faster time to results and greater flexibility. More importantly, customers expect demand shaping to drive visibility across the value chain. You could see the eyes light up and the energy levels go up especially in the TMS (Freight Matrix), POS Demand Sensing, and demand shaping sessions.
  
• Supply chain continues to be a proactive discipline. More than ensuring that the right product reaches the right customer at the right time, users expect to drill into the root-cause and rapidly apply corrective actions. New generation supply chains deliver on the convergence of visibility, planning, collaboration, control, and analysis. Customers continued to express the need to be vigilant.
  
• i2 has developed significant expertise in the front end sub processes. By besting SAP at Lenovo, i2 proved not only the strength of its order fulfillment to order completion, but also its ability to move into opportunity to order capture via not only its configurator but also its multi-channel capabilities. Believe it or not, the complete order management cycle on the Lenovo site runs on i2.
• ABPP provides the technology foundation for i2's future. After some extensive discussions with both Sanjiv and Pallab it became clear that i2 has a clear understanding of its role in the future of solution centric software ecosystems. I believe i2 intends to emerge in the next 3 to 5 years as a complete supply chain solutions provider with a platform that will support a wide range of deployment options, solution options, partner extensions, and professional services. This will not be an easy task to deliver, but the intention is to provide customers and partners with flexibility via the toolkit (e.g. MDM and business content library).
• Many SAP customers continue to choose i2 while Oracle customers remain hesitant. From talking to customers and system integrators, i2 continues to hold its ground and gain some momentum in the SAP install base. Key factors include user reluctance to upgrade to NetWeaver and i2's continued lead over SAP in advanced capabilities. Penetration and growth in SAP accounts parallels the experience of BI vendors Cognos and BO who have entrenched themselves with business users in "SAP only" environments. However, i2 needs to figure out how to win over Oracle customers. To date, I see Oracle customers more likely to explore hot acquisitions such as G-Log and Retek while holding on to their latest release of JD Edwards or Oracle EBS.
• i2 remains a thought leader in the industry. I often joke if i2 stopped building software it would be the supply chain consultant of choice like an Ann Grackin at ChainLink or AMR Research. The conversations I had with all levels within the company showcase their bench strength and passion. Discussions in the breakout sessions and throughout the event showed that a good majority of the best of the best were i2 customers.
  

Despite the current industry consolidation and shift to the next generation of software, I believe i2 can pursue a strategy similar to Amdocs and succeed in not only a horizontal capability but several industries with end to end solutions and services. The push to solutions selling and services revenue on a flexible platform is the first step. The real story is how much investment in R&D and innovation capabilities will i2's board allow in a post- Mike McGrath era.

(The personal contents in this blog do not reflect the opinions, ideas, thoughts, points of view, and any other potential attribution of my current, past, or future employers.)
Copyrighted 2007 by R Wang. All rights reserved

Enterprise Software Earnings Watch: Solid License Growth Amidst Increasing Customer Backlash on Maintenance Pricing

Recent positive earnings announcements from SAP, Oracle, Microsoft, Business Objects, Agresso, and Epicor signal that the enterprise software market remains quite healthy. Despite doomsayer analyses that talk about the slowing economy, high single to double digit growth in license revenue demonstrate the success of recent initiatives to capture new industries and market segments (e.g. SME and services industries). Both Agresso and Epicor show significant success in net new license growth in the SME market.

Agresso- 2006 FY License revenues up 16% to €56.8M
Business Objects [BOBJ.O]- Q1 2007 License revenues up 9% YOY to $137M
Epicor [EPIC.O]- Q1 2007 License revenues up 14.1% to $22M
Microsoft [MSFT.O] - Q3 2007 License revenues up 20% (MBS Dynamics break out not disclosed)
Oracle [ORCL.O]- Q3 2007 License revenues up 57% $423M (organic/acquisition mix TBD)
SAP [SAP.N]- Q1 2007 License revenues up 16% YOY (Constant Currency) €563M

However, the real story remains the growth in maintenance revenues which account for 2x to 3x of license revenues. Many vendors report a 25% to 50% increase in maintenance revenues and retention in the 90%+ range. Estimates on profitability for maintenance range from 25% to 90% margin.

As maintenance costs average from 20 to 25% of the license fees, customers continue to express outrage over the value they are receiving. Despite the number of Y2K replacement projects slated for 2008 to 2011, many customers express ERP upgrade fatigue. Consequently, expect upgrade projects to be pushed out to 2009 through 2012 and third party maintenance options to remain attractive.

(The personal contents in this blog do not reflect the opinions, ideas, thoughts, points of view, and any other potential attribution of my current, past, or future employers.)
Copyrighted 2007 by R Wang. All rights reserved

Industry View: SaaS Applistructures Deliver on the Promise of Tying Web 2.0 to Enterprise 2.0

Walking out of the SalesForce.com Event on Tuesday the 10th had me thinking about the promise of Web 2.0 for the enterprise via middleware, SaaS platforms, and this notion of Applistructure. The thing that really struck home was not the utility computing model that Marc rants and raves about, nor the great drag and drop content management capability of Koral that was being demo'd. What struck home more than anything was how applistructure was taking shape via SaaS and how quickly SaaS could deliver Web2.0 capabilities to the Enterprise.

Okay, let me take a step back, what's applistructure? Well, applistructure refers to the boundary blurring between business applications and infrastructure software. Originally coined by Ken Vollmer of Forrester (Giga) in 2003, the term is shaping up, especially with the rise of middleware platforms (e.g. IBM WebSphere "Blue Stack", Oracle Fusion Middleware "Red Stack", Microsoft VS.Net "Rainbow Stack", and SAP NetWeaver "Blue and White Stack") that are doing everything from being the appserver, delivering BPEL, modeling business processes, addressing content management, providing business intelligence, coordinating master data, solving identity management, etc. SaaS itself is an applicstructure and as these applistructures take hold in the enterprise world via middleware, the SaaS vendors including SFDC, NetSuite, and WorkDay, have the best opportunity to deliver on most of the collaborative aspects of Web2.0.

Unfortunately for most enterprises, not much of the Web 2.0 impact we feel here in the Valley has made it into the mainstream middleware platforms. In fact recent announcements of Lotus Quickr, SAP's end-user widgets, Microsoft Office 2007, and Oracle Web Center show slow to moderate progress in this arena. Hot for Web2.0 for years has been tagging, mash-ups, social network, participation architectures, and the spirit of the individual and wisdom of the tribe. Though we're starting to see wiki's, blogging, and RSS become the new collaboration standards for enterprises its really been the SaaS movement that's driving Web2.0 adoption into the Enterprise.

Similar to the shift in attitude on utility computing and the simplification of licensing and pricing to cost/user/month, I think we can count on SaaS to be the game changer again. I eagerly await to see what other Web2.0 innovations like the Koral acquisition by SFDC will make its way to the likes of SAP, Oracle, Microsoft, and IBM in this emerging solutions centric software world order.

(The personal contents in this blog do not reflect the opinions, ideas, thoughts, points of view, and any other potential attribution of my current, past, or future employers.)
Copyrighted 2007 by R Wang. All rights reserved

News Analysis: SAP in a Post-Shai era?

It's hard to believe that less than 7 years ago, SAP was seen as a stodgy, client-server based, and very stubborn German software company. That transformation from "borg-like" vendor to innovator wasn't easy, but at the helm of that transition was Shai Agassi. As one of the few non-German executive members, he harnessed the can-do attitude of Silicon Valley, brought the Israeli practicality, and tied the engineering talent of SAP closer to the pulse of innovation. And despite the skeptics, he shifted power away from Germany and Newtown Square to Palo Alto.

Looking back, Shai leaves an organization with quite a legacy. First and foremost the transformation from client-server to internet. Shai also drove the efforts to get mySAP CRM out the door and build out the mid-market. But even more importantly, the strong software ecosystem and partner network that Shai so evangelized leaves SAP with the foundation to innovate and build last mile solutions so needed in the micro-vertical market. SAP's success in building buzz and attracting ISV partners includes work with Microsoft on Duet that continues to differentiate SAP from its chief competitor, Oracle, in the applications space. Finally, the vision and swagger Shai brought to SAP will be the most memorable. Customers often left impressed by the possibilities they could see in their investment in SAP.

Yet, challenges abound for SAP in a post-Shai world with or without him. Microsoft shows continued success in the SMB side of the house with wins in hub and spoke SAP environments and subsidiaries of SAP enterprises looking to wean themselves from the high cost of ownership and upgrade to mySAP ERP 2005 Meanwhile heavy discounting by Oracle in the large enterprise space, put quite a squeeze on SAP in the near term for new business in the large enterprise space, as only Oracle can afford to bolster app sales with middleware and database revenues. SaaS entrants like SalesForce.com and NetSuite chip away at SAP's cost structure and usability while the entrance of Dave Duffield's WorkDay may complicate SAP's efforts to beat Oracle/PeopleSoft at HCM. As user experience becomes important, SAP has fallen behind in building products that showcase the best of Web 2.0 meets Enterprise 2.0.

So while Shai brought vision and innovation, much work needs to be done in a post-Shai world. The need to execute becomes greater as promises made to customers, partners, and employees must be kept. Investment for better tools in NetWeaver and MDM would help partners build more efficiently and allow for a stronger ecosystem foundation. Success in the mid-market and a strong SaaS offering would put competitors SalesForce.com, WorkDay, Oracle, and NetSuite on the defensive. Moreover, a move away from middleware infrastructure in general would expedite the transition from Oracle database to anything else and keep SAP from indirectly funding future Oracle acquisitions and Oracle's development of competitive products.

But without a visionary like Shai at hand, the top tier talent he brought into the valley will need a reason from management to remain. Execution of Shai's vision has always been the most challenging role to play and we will know in the next 3 to 5 years how SAP will fare in the market. Yet despite execution being the key to near term success, SAP will still need an articulate visionary at the helm or risk retreating on the visibility and panache Shai brought to the industry.


For additional information:
Official SAP Press Release
San Francisco Chronicle
SearchSAP.com
Managing Automation


(The personal contents in this blog do not reflect the opinions, ideas, thoughts, points of view, and any other potential attribution of my current, past, or future employers.)
Copyrighted 2007 by R Wang. All rights reserved